The Future of Commerce Podcast

H1 2025 retail results: Volatility, tariffs, job market hit hard; make for uncertain H2

Episode Summary

The first half of 2025 has been a wake-up call for the retail sector—and for consumers. In this episode, we break down the latest H1 retail data showing how price-sensitive shoppers, tariff-driven cost increases, and a struggling job market are reshaping spending patterns. From warehouse clubs and dollar stores gaining ground to major brands like McDonald’s seeing double-digit drops in low-income visits, we examine the forces at play and what they signal for the rest of the year. With tariffs threatening to add $2,400 to the average household’s annual costs and retail job cuts surging 249%, the road ahead for H2 looks anything but certain.

Episode Notes

Retail’s “canary in the coal mine” moment has arrived. The H1 2025 Retail Recap Report reveals a sector under strain from economic volatility, shifting consumer habits, tariff pressures, and rising job losses. In this episode, we unpack the numbers and narratives driving this change, from cautious shoppers and evolving mall spaces to mounting supply chain costs and looming risks for the second half of the year.

Drawing on retail performance data, executive insights, and industry forecasts, we connect the dots between consumer psychology, policy impacts, and the strategic crossroads facing retailers. Whether targeting high-income spenders or pivoting to extreme value propositions, businesses must navigate a retail landscape that’s fundamentally shifting beneath their feet.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

1. The State of Consumer Spending

• Why warehouse clubs and dollar stores are thriving
• Caution in grocery spending and reluctance to try new brands
• Health and wellness as a persistent priority amid belt-tightening

2. Economic Indicators Behind the Slowdown

• Inflation masking weaker sales volumes
• H1 driven by high-income spenders while low-income visits drop sharply
• McDonald’s reports double-digit declines in low-income customer visits

3. Tariff Pressures and Their Consumer Impact

• $100M in projected costs for Under Armour from tariffs alone
• Goldman Sachs estimates tariffs could add $2,400 annually to household expenses
• Price impacts on clothing, cars, and fresh produce

4. Job Market Shifts in Retail

• Retail job cuts up 249% YoY, totaling over 80,000 in H1
• Signs of systemic change beyond seasonal adjustments

5. Tourism and Service Sector Headwinds

• WTTC forecasts $29B drop in U.S. international tourism spending
• U.S. as the only country projected to see a decline in 2025

6. What to Expect in H2 2025

• Holiday season uncertainty despite typical seasonal uptick
• Strategic fork: target the wealthy or pivot hard to value retail
• Inflation, interest rates, and tariffs as ongoing headwinds

Key Takeaways:

• Consumer caution is reshaping where and how people spend
• Tariffs are directly raising household costs and straining retailer margins
• Job cuts and slowing tourism add to the sector’s instability
• Retailers face a stark strategic choice for the rest of 2025
• The middle ground in retail is eroding, redefining economic health indicators

Subscribe to our podcast for expert analysis on retail trends, economic indicators, and consumer behavior shifts. Visit The Future of Commerce for deeper insights into how market forces and policy decisions are shaping the retail landscape. Share this episode with retail strategists, policy watchers, and anyone navigating the challenges of 2025’s volatile economy.