The Future of Commerce Podcast

Retail and tariffs: Stockpiles, agility, and a supply chain reckoning

Episode Summary

Retailers are facing a perfect storm of slowing sales, shifting consumer psychology, and unprecedented supply chain disruption driven by tariffs and global trade volatility. In this episode, we unpack the latest retail sales data, reveal why consumer caution is taking hold, and explore how businesses are responding with AI, automation, and supply chain reinvention. From Target’s price-matching rollback to a toy industry crisis, discover how policy, technology, and strategy are reshaping what you find—and pay for—at the store.

Episode Notes

A slowdown in retail sales is rippling through the industry, with new tariffs and supply chain volatility forcing retailers to rethink everything from pricing to inventory management. In this episode, inspired by Retail and tariffs: Stockpiles, agility, and a supply chain reckoning, we break down the economic forces and operational shifts behind the headlines.

Drawing on the latest NRF Retail Monitor data, RELX Solutions’ supply chain study, and real-world cases from Target to the toy industry, we explore how consumer caution, trade policy, and global disruptions are converging—and how retailers are responding with AI, automation, and supplier diversification to stay resilient.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

1. The Current State of Retail Sales

• June 2025 marks the first monthly sales decline since February
• Consumer caution is slowing momentum despite year-over-year growth in some categories
• Digital goods stand out with a 24% YoY increase, while big-ticket items slump

2. Why Consumer Psychology Matters

• Uncertainty around tariffs and the economy is driving a “wait-and-see” approach
• How sentiment influences spending beyond inflation or interest rate changes

3. The Supply Chain Pressure Cooker

• Findings from RELX Solutions: 60% of companies restructuring supply chains
• Top pain points: demand volatility, trade disruptions, lack of real-time data
• Moves toward nearshoring, automation, and AI for agility

4. Three Major Pressure Points and Solutions

1. Supplier diversification: real-time info-sharing and AI trade-off modeling
2. Inventory planning: unified data, AI simulation engines, and multi-echelon optimization
3. Demand planning: dynamic AI forecasting that adapts to policy changes

5. Case Studies in Change

• Target: Ending competitor price-matching amid tariff cost pressures
• Toy industry: 145% tariffs on Chinese imports threaten half of SME toy makers

6. Technology as the Strategic Lever

• AI-driven visibility and optimization for resilience
• Inventory pooling and RFID for better tracking and cost control
• Predictive analytics to match stock levels with volatile demand

Key Takeaways:

• Retail sales are slowing as consumer caution deepens amid economic uncertainty
• Tariffs and trade policy shifts are driving supply chain reinvention at scale
• AI and automation are essential tools for resilience and agility
• Retail policies, from price-matching to product availability, are shifting in real time
• The impact reaches every shopper’s cart—what’s available, and at what price

Subscribe to our podcast for expert insights on retail strategy, supply chain innovation, and the evolving consumer landscape. Visit The Future of Commerce for in-depth research on how global trade and technology are reshaping retail. Share this episode with supply chain leaders, retail strategists, and consumer market analysts navigating the current volatility.